The Pulse of the Aftermarket
Despite ongoing civil unrest across the US, National RO was down only -9% beating our forecast (-11%) by 2%. New Covid-19 cases stayed below 150k for the third week in a row but moved up slightly from the week prior. Our forecast for next week is -8% versus 2019.
Orlando and Phoenix (+5%) were joined by Dallas (+2%) on the upside this week while Washington DC (-30%) regained its inauspicious lead position on the downside.
Market level forecasts improved over last week. We were baffled again by PDX where we forecast -34% but activity rebounded to -14%. We hit the mark in DET, LAX and SFO and missed by only 1% in HOU, MIA, MIN, PHI, SEA and STL. Forecast error as measured by mean absolute deviation (MAD) was 4.6%, a small improvement over last week. Tropical Storm Cristobal is deluging the Gulf States with wind and heavy rain and will be pushing into the Midwest over the next few days where it will bring cooler temperatures, heavy precipitation and severe thunderstorms with possible tornado activity.
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