Despite ongoing civil unrest across the US, National RO was down only -9% beating our forecast (-11%) by 2%. New Covid-19 cases stayed below 150k for the third week in a row but moved up slightly from the week prior. Our forecast for next week is -8% versus 2019.
Until recently the Automotive Aftermarket was provided data from key channel distributors indicating monthly sales activity and market share for various vehicle part categories. At the beginning of 2012 the consortium of companies that provided these data collapsed. Since then, parts suppliers and others in the Aftermarket have been searching for a new source of data to fill the void and this very issue is being discussed by industry representatives at the AAIA Fall Leadership Days conference in San Francisco.
In this post I propose a methodology for estimating market size and discuss how this estimate of total demand can form the basis for replacing, and perhaps improving upon, the market data previously provided by NPD.