Weekly Repair Order (RO) activity reversed the downward trend that had begun in late September and finished the year on a modest upswing. In the last week of November RO was down 10% but it bounced back sharply into the second week of December before falling back into the negative high single digits during the last two full weeks of the year.
Weekly Repair Order (RO) activity began a gradual decline in late September. The decline in RO appears to have begun concurrently with the onset of the most recent surge in Covid-19 infections. RO had recovered almost completely by early September when it was down only 2-3% versus 2019. In the last week of November RO was down 10% and appears to be trending lower. Certainly there are other impactful variables to consider, mostly economic and perhaps also political given the timing of the 2020 election. Hopefully the approval and distribution of vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna in December will help reverse the trend. Congressional approval of another stimulus package may also contribute.
For the week of July 12, national RO was down -6% again, just 1% better than our forecast of -7%, again. Covid-19 cases are still surging this week at 465k (+15% versus the previous week). Our RO forecast for next week remains -7% versus 2019.
For the week of July 5, national RO was down -6%, just 1% better than our forecast of -7%. Covid-19 cases are up sharply again this week at 406k (+23% versus the previous week). Our RO forecast for next week is steady at -7% versus 2019.
For the week of June 28, national RO was down -7%, just 1% better than our forecast of -8%. Covid-19 exploded in the US with 329k new cases last week, up +29% versus the previous week. Our RO forecast for next week is -7% versus 2019.
For the week of June 21, national RO was down -8% falling short of our forecast (-4%) by -4%. New Covid-19 cases last week set a new record at over 250k and likely contributed to the drop in RO activity. Our forecast for next week is -8% versus 2019.
For the week of June 7, national RO was down only -5% beating our forecast (-8%) by 3%. The week of June 14 dropped back to -6%. New Covid-19 cases jumped up over 180k for the first time since April. Our forecast for next week is -4% versus 2019.
This week we don’t have the weekly RO data available to report national and market level numbers or to evaluate previous forecasts and present new forecasts. We will return to the regular RO data reporting and forecasting next week. Thank you for your patience.
In the meantime, we’re providing 2020 historical data for each of the 20 markets we track. This was requested by one of our readers and hopefully it will be useful to many of you. Feel free to send content suggestions like this anytime to firstname.lastname@example.org.
Despite ongoing civil unrest across the US, National RO was down only -9% beating our forecast (-11%) by 2%. New Covid-19 cases stayed below 150k for the third week in a row but moved up slightly from the week prior. Our forecast for next week is -8% versus 2019.