The Pulse of the Aftermarket
A White Paper Series by Aftermarket Analytics and Full Throttle Technologies
Written by – Justin Holman PhD, CEO of Aftermarket Analytics
For the week of June 28, national RO was down -7%, just 1% better than our forecast of -8%. Covid-19 exploded in the US with 329k new cases last week, up +29% versus the previous week. Our RO forecast for next week is -7% versus 2019.
Only ORL (+3%) stayed positive, joined by ATL, CHI and MIA (all +3%). PHX (-7%) and CLE (-12%) dropped sharply while DC (-26%) remained at the very bottom.
Market level forecasts were off from last week with mean absolute deviation (MAD) at 5.9% vs 4.4%. We hit the mark in PHI, PDX and DC and missed by only 1% in SFO. We missed badly in MIA, CHI and BOS where we were surprised on the upside and CLE surprised us on the downside. Thunderstorms and rain are expected across the South, moving toward the Upper Midwest and the Northeast later in the week. Hot temperatures will dominate the Western US. New Covid-19 case counts will likely top 300k in the US again this week but hopefully will flatten at that level. Note we’re providing market level Covid-19 cases per 1,000 population this week.
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