The Pulse of the Aftermarket
A White Paper Series by Aftermarket Analytics and Full Throttle Technologies
Written by – Justin Holman PhD, CEO of Aftermarket Analytics
For the week of June 21, national RO was down -8% falling short of our forecast (-4%) by -4%. New Covid-19 cases last week set a new record at over 250k and likely contributed to the drop in RO activity. Our forecast for next week is -8% versus 2019.
Orlando (+7%) and Phoenix (+2%) stayed in positive territory but Houston (-18%), Miami (-12%) and Dallas (-8%) dropped sharply while DC (-26%) held the bottom spot.
Market level forecasts improved this week. We hit the mark in DAL, DET, MIA and PHX and missed by only 1% in BOS and LAX. We missed badly in CLE, HOU and NYC where performance was lower than expected. Forecast error as measured by mean absolute deviation (MAD) was 4.4%. More thunderstorms and rain are expected for much of the eastern half of the US. Severe storms are possible in the Carolinas and the Dakotas. All eyes will be on reports of new Covid-19 case counts in Arizona, Texas and Florida where infections have surged after what appear to be premature efforts to relax restrictions and reopen businesses.
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