The Pulse of the Aftermarket
A White Paper Series by Aftermarket Analytics and Full Throttle Technologies
Written by – Justin Holman PhD, CEO of Aftermarket Analytics
Repair Order (RO) activity in the US continues to recover, albeit at a slower pace since early May. The forecast for national RO in our last issue was -12%, which was close but off by 1% with RO activity -13% for the week of May 17 versus the same week in 2019. Meanwhile, new US Covid-19 case counts dropped below 150k for the first time in eight weeks.
Washington DC remains hardest hit at -37%. West coast cities are also down sharply while Phoenix is actually up 2% and several other cities are only down single digits.
Overall, our market level forecasts were slightly better than last week. Our worst miss was Orlando where we forecast 0% change but activity was down -8%. We hit the mark in Chicago and missed by only 1% in Detroit, LA, Philadelphia, Phoenix and Seattle. Overall, forecast error as measured by mean absolute deviation (MAD) was 3.1%, better than the 5.7% recorded last week. We’re including some basic weather information, just a simple outlook in terms of temperature highs and lows (℉) and likely conditions during the upcoming work week (M-F). Pretty warm temperatures across the US with Phoenix expecting 110 ℉ later in the week.
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